Chart Setups & Entries

FTI | Another Oil & Gas Name Tightening Up

Another Oil & Gas name catching my attention: FTI | TechnipFMC

What immediately stands out to me is the VCP-like price action developing near the highs.

FTI had a powerful run of roughly 80%, and since then the corrections have progressively tightened:

18.5% → 13.7% → 8.6%

That is exactly the type of behavior we want to see as a stock works through a constructive base.

Mark Minervini describes the Volatility Contraction Pattern, or VCP, as volatility contracting from left to right as supply is gradually absorbed. The stock moves from wider price swings on the left side of the base toward increasingly tighter action on the right, ideally accompanied by volume drying up.

That is very similar to what we're seeing here.

The contractions aren't perfectly symmetrical, so I wouldn't call this a textbook VCP, but the character of the setup is very VCP-like: progressively smaller pullbacks, tightening price action on the right side, and price working back toward the highs.

The stock also has a 92 1-Year RS Rating, with fundamentals that continue to move in the right direction:

• Quarterly EPS: +33%

• Quarterly sales: +9%

• ROE: 36%

• Pretax margin: 17%

• Fund ownership increasing

And perhaps most importantly, this is another Oil & Gas Equipment & Services name showing strength.

Now let's see if demand shows up with BIG volume.

EQNR | Equinor

The chartist in me can’t help but notice EQNR here.

On the monthly chart, EQNR is approaching the major $42–$44 resistance zone that dates back to its 2008 all-time high. It challenged roughly the same area again in 2022 and is now back near it once more.

What makes this attempt interesting is the structure underneath it. Price is tightening while forming higher lows, and the weekly and daily charts show the same character.

Could it reject again? Absolutely.

But some of the biggest technical moves begin when price finally breaks free from a massive multi-year base. Gold is a great example. It repeatedly challenged its old highs after the 2011 peak before finally breaking decisively into new-high territory in 2024.

The fundamentals also give us a reason to pay attention:

• EPS growth: +108%

• Sales growth: +37%

• Pre-tax margins: 37.7%

• ROE: 21.4%

• 1-year RS: 84

• Industry RS: 91

One energy name I’m keeping very close on the watchlist.

Never Buy a Stock Below Its 200-Day Moving Average

Stan Weinstein does not treat this as a preference.

It is a hard filter.

In his 1988 classic, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets, Weinstein built Stage Analysis around the 30-week moving average, which is roughly equivalent to the 150-day moving average.

In later years, Weinstein shifted his primary long-term trend filter to the 40-week moving average, or approximately the 200-day moving average.

The exact moving average changed. The principle did not.

The 200-day provides a slower, more conservative view of the primary trend and is one of the most widely followed long-term moving averages in the market.

The four stages through the 200-day lens:

• Stage 1: Price builds a base around a flattening 200-day moving average.

• Stage 2: Price breaks above resistance and advances above a rising 200-day.

• Stage 3: Price becomes wide and erratic as the 200-day begins to flatten.

• Stage 4: Price declines beneath a falling 200-day moving average.

Stage Analysis in one rule:

Never buy below a declining 200-day moving average. Never short above a rising 200-day moving average.

But remember, the 200-day is a filter, not an entry signal.

You still need a sound setup with clearly defined risk and proper position sizing once the conditions of Stage 2 are met. Even short-term swing traders can improve their probabilities by aligning short-term setups with this longer-term trend filter.

The 200-day does not tell you exactly when to buy. It helps tell you when not to buy.

Stage Analysis in Action: Is MNTN Entering a New Stage 2 Uptrend?

Looking through today’s market movers, MNTN stood out as a great real-time example of Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis at work.

The chart first shows a clear Stage 4 decline, with lower highs, lower lows, price below declining moving averages, and the moving averages themselves trending downward.

Then the character begins to change.

Price stops declining and consolidates sideways for several months. The moving averages gradually flatten, selling pressure appears to ease, and price begins forming higher lows and higher highs. This is the type of character change that can signal a transition out of Stage 1 and the potential beginning of a new Stage 2 advance.

That does not automatically make Stage 2 fully confirmed. Ideally, we still want to see price break decisively above the base and resistance, supported by a rising long-term moving average, expanding volume on up moves, and improving relative strength.

For a deeper understanding of this framework, I highly recommend Stan Weinstein’s Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. It is one of the most foundational books for trend and momentum traders.

I also wrote a short article to Weinstein’s Stage Analysis that you can read here:

https://tradingmomentum.substack.com/p/stan-weinsteins-stage-analysis-the

ANF, Are You Back?

ANF was one of the market’s great trades in 2023 and 2024 before topping out and entering a stage 4 decline.

This week, it delivered a massive earnings episodic pivot on heavy volume. Price has held the gap and is now tightening into what looks like a developing pennant near the highs.

The latest quarter received a meaningful boost from tariff refunds, but forward estimates still point toward renewed earnings growth and an improving sales outlook. That makes this potential turnaround worth watching.

We will see whether the fundamentals continue to improve and price confirms. I’m a sucker for flags and pennants, and ANF has my attention.

Anyone buy NET?

I like the earnings and sales growth on $NET.

• EPS +38%.

• Sales +35%.

• Estimates look like they're accelerating on the sales side too.

• Fund ownership is rising quarter after quarter.

• Strong RS

I would like to see ROE or pretax margins strong, the way O'Neil talks about in his book. These aren't.

The other positives plus a low-risk, high-reward pullback off the 50-day still make this a great trade.

Stop Missing the Move!

Finding the right stocks is only half the battle.

You also need alerts built into your screening process.

If a stock makes your watchlist because it has:

• Strong Relative Strength

• Strong earnings and sales

• A leading industry group

…but hasn’t set up yet with a low-risk, high-reward entry, set the alert before it gets there or as it gets closer.

Because the market doesn’t care if you’re working, driving, at lunch, or looking at another chart.

Some of the best stocks can go from “not ready yet” to “actionable” very quickly.

And there’s nothing worse than opening the chart later and thinking:

“Damn. I missed the move.”

Your job isn’t to stare at 100 charts all day.

Your job is to build a process that tells you when the stocks that matter are becoming actionable.

Screen → Watchlist → Alert → Execute.

Then combine that process with the right order types, such as buy-stop orders, so you don’t have to be staring at the screen when the trigger occurs.

This is exactly why I built the watchlist inside our software around three stages:

Watch → Near Pivot → Actionable

With alerts built directly into the process.

This is one of the biggest mistakes I see newer traders make.

They do the work to find the right stock, but because they don’t have a process for tracking it, they either miss the move entirely or chase it after the stock is already extended.

Finding great stocks matters.

Being ready when they become actionable matters too.

Missed CGAU’s First 65% Move? You Still Had Another Chance.

One of the biggest mistakes traders make is abandoning a winning stock simply because they missed its first breakout.

CGAU is a perfect example.

The stock spent years building a large base. As it moved up the right side, price began tightening before finally breaking out during the week of August 29, 2025.

It then ran higher for eight consecutive weeks, gaining approximately 65%.

Missed it?

You didn’t need to chase.

CGAU then moved sideways and tightened for roughly six weeks. The lows continued rising, Relative Strength remained extremely strong, and the stock eventually broke through its prior high during the week of November 28.

That second breakout produced another gain of approximately 50%.

Sometimes the second setup can be even more attractive because the stock has already proven itself:

✅ A powerful initial move on volume

✅ Strong Relative Strength

✅ Big earnings and sales growth

✅ Expanding margins and strong ROE

✅ Increasing institutional ownership

✅ Strength across the metals and mining group

CGAU has recently been appearing on our MTS Velocity stock screens again as metals and mining continue to outperform, something we’ve also been covering in the Big Picture Market Pulse.

Big winners rarely move straight up.

They break out. They advance. They rest and tighten. Then they often offer another opportunity.

Missing the first breakout doesn’t mean you missed the entire move.

We Didn’t Find CDNA After the Breakout. We Were Watching It Before. 👀

On August 6, I shared a list of medical, pharmaceutical, biotech, and healthcare stocks we were watching inside the MTS Community.

CDNA was on it.

We originally spotted the stock using the MTS Velocity screener, and the numbers made it difficult to ignore:

• EPS growth: +331%

• Sales growth: +52%

• Pretax margin: 86.8%

• ROE: 29.5%

• Relative Strength: 98

• Industry Group RS: 98

After its earnings run, CDNA pulled back constructively on much lower volume.

Then volume began returning on August 19.

Yesterday, it broke out.

Now it’s continuing higher in pre-market trading. 🚀

While much of the market remained focused on the same AI stocks that had stopped leading, relative strength was pointing toward healthcare and biotech.

Most people notice a stock after the breakout candle appears.

The real work happens before it.

MTS Velocity found the stock. The MTS Trading Room tracked the setup. Price and volume confirmed the opportunity.

Screen. Study. Prepare. Then let the stock prove you right.

The Best Swing Trades Look Like This Before They Explode

Study this chart.

CAI is a great example of what can happen when industry strength, price action, volume, fundamentals, and risk management all align to create a low-risk, high-reward swing-trading setup.

Biotech had a strong run in June. IBB then spent July building a base, formed a handle near its highs in August, and broke out to new highs.

While the industry group was confirming its strength, CAI was setting up.

1. Character change: The stock established a higher low followed by a higher high. That higher high confirmed the higher low and signaled the character change I look for.

2. Volume and growth fundamentals: Around earnings, volume expanded dramatically, quarterly sales grew 45%, and price moved back above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

3. Low-volume pullback: CAI pulled back on declining volume almost perfectly to the 200-day moving average and found support.

4. Entry: The following day, it gapped higher on increasing volume, providing an entry near the open on August 19.

5. Clearly defined risk: You could have placed a very tight stop below the low of the entry day. My preferred stop was below the higher low, the 200-day moving average, and the low of the pullback.

6. Sell into strength: Once the stock reached a multiple of the initial risk, you could sell some into strength to help finance the trade, protect your principal, and give the remaining shares room to capture a potentially larger move.

That is what low risk really means.

It does not mean the trade cannot fail. It means you know exactly where you are wrong, while the characteristics of the setup offer significantly more potential reward than what you are risking.

Even the wider technical stop required less than 6% risk. Within only a few days, CAI had gained approximately 18%, or three times the initial risk. That created an ideal opportunity to sell some into strength while allowing the remaining position more room.

The fundamentals also supported the setup:

• Sales growth of approximately 45%

• ROE above 20%

• The number of funds owning shares more than doubling over the past year

• Improving forward estimates

• One-month RS of 98

• Three-month RS of 95

CAI does not fully meet my longer-term position-trading criteria, particularly because its one-year relative strength remains weak. But for a swing trade, it fits extremely well.

This is why traders like Kristjan Kullamägi focus on the market’s strongest performers over the previous one, three, or six months.

Strong industry group. Character change. Massive volume. A lower-volume pullback. Support at a key moving average. A clear entry and clearly defined risk.

Study these characteristics.

What Does a Confirmed Uptrend Look Like?

A strong move off the lows does not automatically mean a new uptrend has begun.

When I’m looking for confirmation that a stock has transitioned into a Stage 2 uptrend, I want to see a few things:

• Price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages

• The 50-day above the 200-day

• Both moving averages flattening and trending higher

• A clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows

• Strong relative strength

• Strong volume on the advances and lighter volume on constructive pullbacks

Think of it like a staircase: higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low.

This is similar to the framework behind Mark Minervini’s Trend Template, which he uses to filter for stocks that have already established a confirmed Stage 2 uptrend.

But this is important:

A confirmed uptrend is not a buy signal. It’s a filter.

Once a stock is in the right trend, I still want to wait for a proper setup, something like a VCP, cup with handle, tight consolidation, flat base, or constructive pullback, that gives me a clearly defined entry and favorable risk-to-reward.

Trend first. Setup second. Entry third. Risk defined before the trade.

Let the stock prove the trend has changed and then wait for my opportunity.

For anyone using the MTS Velocity RS Scanner / Stock Screener, we also have the Trend Template built directly into the screener, making it easy to filter for stocks meeting those Stage 2 trend criteria.

When Low Short-Term Relative Strength Is Actually Bullish (Most Traders Get This Wrong)

A lot of traders misunderstand what they’re seeing when they sort stocks by Relative Strength.

When a stock is ripping higher, you’ll usually see strong RS across nearly every timeframe: 1-year, 6-month, 3-month, 1-month, even 1-week.

But that’s also usually when everyone starts saying:

“It’s too extended.”

The more interesting opportunity can appear when a major leader finally starts to consolidate.

In this SNDK example, the stock still had elite longer-term Relative Strength, but its shorter-term RS started falling as price consolidated, found support, volume dried up, and higher lows began forming.

At first glance, that weaker short-term RS might look bearish.

But in the right context, it can be exactly the opposite.

It can be telling you that a powerful leader has finally stopped running long enough to build another potential buying opportunity.

That’s the part many traders miss.

But there’s a catch.

The exact same RS relationship can also appear when a former leader is actually breaking down.

If price loses important moving averages, fails to reclaim them, starts making lower lows, and the overall chart deteriorates, then falling short-term RS may be confirming that the stock’s leadership is ending.

Same Relative Strength readings. Completely different message.

That’s why I never use Relative Strength in isolation.

A screener can help me find the stock.

Price, volume, trend, and the chart tell me what the RS actually means.

This clip comes from a longer video where I walk through some of the exact stock screens I personally use inside MTS Velocity, including how I combine different Relative Strength timeframes, fundamentals, volume, trend, and market context to narrow thousands of stocks down to the names I actually want to study.

The full video and MTS Velocity Stock Screener are available to all paid subscribers.

GEO 👀 Now THAT’S a Nice-Looking Flat Base Breakout

This is the type of setup I like to see.

GEO found support right around the rising 50-day moving average, spent several weeks tightening up near the highs, and is now pushing through the top of a clean flat base into new highs.

Even better, earnings are already out of the way, removing one major piece of event risk.

Nice support at the 50-day. Tight price action. Defined breakout level. New highs.

Nice setup.

Look at Bitcoin and Crypto Go 👀🚀

BTC is working toward showing the kind of character change I’ve been waiting to see.

Price is now back above the 200-day moving average, something we haven’t seen since the topping process began last fall.

From here, I’d actually prefer to see a pullback and consolidation rather than price just running straight up. Ideally, BTC establishes a higher low, similar to what we saw in 2023, and then turns higher to break out to a new high.

That would also give the 50-day moving average time to rise back above the 200-day, while allowing the 200-day to flatten out and eventually start trending higher.

Higher high. Higher low.

Price above the 200-day.

50-day crossing back above the 200-day.

200-day turning higher.

That’s the character change I’m looking for.

Crypto is getting interesting again. 👀

$BTC

ETON: A Growth Name I’m Watching for a Pullback

ETON is a name I’ll be watching closely to see if we get a nice, tight, orderly pullback that could create an attractive entry opportunity.

The stock had a huge gap-up after reporting triple-digit earnings growth, ran higher for several days, and now appears to be pulling back on lighter volume. That is exactly what I like to see following a powerful move.

The fundamentals are strong:

• Quarterly EPS growth: 530%

• Quarterly sales growth: 98%

• Pretax margin: 31%

• ROE: 35%

• Fund ownership increasing quarter over quarter

• 1yr Relative Strength Rating: 97

ETON has the fundamental growth characteristics we look for and has also been a strong performer coming off the July 29 lows.

This is a great CANSLIM name outside many of the AI-related areas that have recently started showing trouble again. Although many of those stocks made powerful moves off the July 29 lows, several have struggled to return to their previous highs. Many that did make it back have struggled to break out successfully.

Now I want to see if ETON can pull back on light volume with tight price action, potentially setting up a low-risk, high-reward entry opportunity.

Before the Breakout: Why AUGO Was Already on My Radar

Strong group. Explosive fundamentals. Great price and volume.

Big move today in metals and miners.

One of the stocks I mentioned in the Big Picture two weeks ago was AUGO. Why did I mention it?

First, since the July 29 lows, we have seen strength in metals and miners, along with many of the groups that led in April and May.

Next, AUGO had triple-digit earnings growth, double-digit sales growth, rapidly growing fund ownership, a one-year Relative Strength Rating of 95, and strong relative strength across the shorter time frames. It was also a name I was watching back in 2025 when metals and miners were performing extremely well.

Combine that with a powerful earnings gap above all its key moving averages, followed by a strong run higher and then a tight consolidation lasting a little over a week. Price found support at the 10-day moving average while volume dried up.

Today, volume rapidly came into the stock. AUGO cleared the consolidation high near $80 at the open and then triggered an opening range breakout around $81.22. Using the low of the day near $79.70 as the stop allowed the trade to be executed with less than 2% risk.

When a breakout through a prior high aligns with an opening range breakout, it can create a much higher-quality setup with a precise entry and tightly defined risk.

We identified a strong industry group within a supportive market environment. Then we found one of the strongest stocks in that group. We looked for great earnings and sales growth, excellent pretax margins and ROE, and textbook price and volume action.

The sequence was clear: a powerful move higher on heavy volume, volume drying up as price consolidated tightly, and then massive volume coming into the stock as it broke out today.

This is a great demonstration of how we use the MTS Velocity trading software to identify growth stock candidates and then apply the setups we teach in the MTS Course. These principles have been used by some of the world’s most successful growth and momentum traders, including William O’Neil, Mark Minervini, Dan Zanger, and Kristjan Kullamägi.

Holy $MRNA. What a gap and move today.

Most market news is bullshit. It either does nothing, or the headline gets written after the stock has already moved and everyone pretends it explains what happened.

But occasionally, a real catalyst hits and creates an opportunity for traders watching the news and tape in real time.

The news was already well known in premarket, but even if you waited for a 15-minute opening range breakout, you still could have captured a 20% to 30% move.

A more aggressive 5-minute opening range breakout offered close to 40% upside while risking roughly 6%.

That is about a 6R trade.

You didn’t need to predict the news or catch the initial gap. You just needed to recognize the unusual strength, define your risk, and execute.

Volatility Can Be Good or Bad. Know the Difference.

Volatility isn’t automatically bad.

Momentum traders need stocks that can move. But there’s a huge difference between volatility that creates opportunity and wide, loose, erratic volatility that makes risk difficult to control.

O’Neil, Minervini, David Ryan, and Dan Zanger approach volatility a little differently, but there’s a common thread:

You want a stock capable of making a meaningful move, while still having a setup that allows you to define and control your risk.

Strength before the setup. Tightness near the entry. Expansion when the move begins.

If you automatically avoid volatility, you may avoid some of the market’s best opportunities. But if you don’t understand the wrong kind of volatility, it can wreck your risk management.

Know the difference.

I break it down in the article below.

https://tradingmomentum.substack.com/p/does-high-volatility-mean-high-risk?r=5ccg85&utm_medium=ios

High Volatility Doesn’t Automatically Mean High Risk

I get asked this a lot:

Should you avoid a stock because its ATR or ADR is high?

Not necessarily.

Dan Zanger specifically wanted stocks that could move. Minervini, O’Neil, and David Ryan focused more on what that volatility was doing near the entry.

The best setups often look like this:

Strength before the setup.

Tightness before the breakout.

Expansion after the breakout.

Minervini even warns about the “bucking broncos,” stocks so volatile that normal movement can knock you out unless you use a stop that is too wide to make sense.

So the question isn’t just:

“Is this stock volatile?”

It’s:

“Can I structure this trade with a precise entry, a sensible stop, and acceptable risk?”

If yes, volatility may be opportunity.

If no, wait for it to tighten or move on.

What Traders Get Wrong About Volume

I’ve received a bunch of questions about volume, so here is an article I wrote about it back in December.

Bottom line: price matters most, and volume is still valuable confirmation, but especially intraday, it can sometimes give an incomplete or misleading picture. Stock volume can also be revised later because of late reports, corrections, cancellations, or the way data providers process certain trades, although the vast majority of normal trading activity is reported promptly.

I go into more detail in the article below, including the differences between stocks and futures.

https://tradingmomentum.substack.com/p/the-volume-youre-watching-isnt-the