What Happened to All the SpaceX Buyers?
If you study market history, run even a basic backtest, or conduct any serious research, you quickly realize that blindly buying hype is usually a bad bet.
I may own SPCX one day. I think SpaceX could ultimately become an incredible public company.
But liking the company and liking the setup are two completely different things.
Buying a heavily hyped IPO straight out of the gate and simply holding it is not what I consider a low-risk, high-reward opportunity.
There is very little price history, no established base, and often no logical place to define your risk.
The better opportunity frequently comes later, after the initial excitement fades, price discovery takes place, and the stock has time to build a real base.
That entry could come six, twelve, or even eighteen months later at a lower price. Sometimes many years later.
It could also come at a higher price, after the stock has proven itself and offered a proper setup.
I do not need to own the first move.
I want the move that gives me the best combination of confirmation, defined risk, and potential reward.
But human nature will continue to repeat itself.
People will continue chasing hype, convincing themselves that this time is different, and laughing at experienced traders who warn them to be patient.
They will say the older traders do not understand the opportunity.
Then the market will teach the same lesson it has been teaching for more than a century.
