Momentum Trading Strategy

Notes

Short lessons on momentum trading, every day.

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$CAR ×
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Why Waste Time on B+ Stocks When A+ Stocks Exist?

This is the type of screen I care about most.

  • Strong sales.

  • Strong earnings.

  • Strong margins and/or ROE.

  • Top-tier relative strength.

  • A leading industry group.

  • Funds increasing quarter after quarter.

  • And most importantly, price confirming with higher highs and higher lows.

That is an A+ growth stock profile.

This is not some new idea either.

This is what O’Neil taught. It is what Minervini looks for. It is what David Ryan studied. It is what Dan Zanger used.

The details may vary from trader to trader, but the foundation is very similar.

Remember, institutions drive major sustained moves. Retail does not.

When I see rising sales, rising earnings, good margins and/or ROE, and funds increasing quarter over quarter, I know the stock has the ingredients of a potential major growth leader.

Then price has to confirm it.

Plenty of names have strong fundamentals, but price is saying NO.

Plenty of names have price moving higher, but without the sales, earnings, margins, ROE, or institutional support behind it, the move is less likely to last. Think CAR in April 2026.

And yes, this is an ideal screen.

Most of the time, you will not get every single ingredient. That is okay.

Sometimes I trade stocks with big sales and earnings growth, but margins or ROE are not great yet. Sometimes fund ownership is flat instead of rising. Those stocks can still work.

But I know they are NOT as high quality as a stock that has everything lining up at once.

So if there are big liquid names showing all the characteristics, why waste time forcing trades in lower-quality stocks?

When the fundamentals are strong, funds are building positions, the group is acting well, and price is confirming, that is where I want my focus.

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This Is How Fast It Can All Disappear

A few days ago I wrote this about CAR:

"But the same mechanics that launch a squeeze can unwind just as fast. What feels like a once in a lifetime move on the way up can turn into a sharp lesson in downside volatility."

Since then, it dropped nearly 70%.

This is the market doing what it always does. Teaching the same lesson over and over, just in different ways.

You are never going to sell the exact top. That is not the goal. The goal is to participate in the move and get out when weakness shows up.

These are some of the best lessons you can study.

I did not trade CAR. It did not fit my core criteria. I spend most of my time focused on stocks with real drivers behind them. Big earnings. Big sales growth. Something new. New product, new service, new demand, or a real shift in the industry.

CAR did not have that.

What it did have was extreme relative strength. That is enough for a short term move. That is not enough to sustain one.

And that is where most people get trapped.

They see the move. They feel the urgency. They chase it with no plan.

But the entire edge in trades like this is not the entry. It is the exit.

This stock was massively extended from the 50 day. It went parabolic.

For 15 straight days, CAR did not break the prior day’s low.

That is your guide.

Even if you chased it halfway up, even if you felt the FOMO, if you simply used a rule like “sell on a break of the prior day’s low,” you would have exited clean.

If you used an Opening Range Breakout entry on April 13th, you risked around 5% and had the potential to make 80% into that first real break of weakness.

No guessing. No hoping.

Just reacting to price.

And here is the part most people miss.

Even entering late, with a stop below the prior day’s low, you could still make multiples of your risk. Easily 4x or better.

That is the power of having a plan.

If you are going to play high volatility names, you have to respect what they are.

Fast up. Faster down. The stairs up, the window down.

Most people do not lose money because they picked the wrong stock.

They lose money because they had no exit plan and held onto losers.

Cut losers fast. Let winners run.

That is the difference between a great trade and a painful lesson.

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This Is Not A Normal Rally: Inside CAR’s Wild Short Squeeze

What a wild ride.

Since April 1, Avis Budget Group (CAR) has ripped nearly 400% higher, trading more like a speculative momentum name than a traditional rental car business.

This isn’t about a great quarter or a few positive headlines.

This is what happens when positioning collides with supply.

The setup was there.

A large percentage of shares were sold short, while a concentrated group of holders controlled most of the stock.

Once buyers stepped in and price started moving, short sellers were forced to cover.

That covering pushed price higher.

Which forced more covering.

And just like that, a feedback loop formed.

At some point, the narrative flipped.

It stopped being about what the business is worth…

…and became about how far positioning could push it.

Under the surface, the business didn’t change in three weeks.

Avis Budget Group is still operating in the same cyclical, capital-intensive industry, with the same long-term dynamics.

There’s no meaningful growth shift here.

The move was driven by positioning.

From the sidelines, it’s easy to feel like you missed the trade of the year.

But the same mechanics that launch a squeeze…

…can unwind just as fast.

Once shorts are covered and late buyers become the marginal holders, liquidity often disappears on the way down.

What feels like a once-in-a-lifetime move on the way up…

can turn into a sharp lesson in downside volatility.

So how do you actually find these?

Start with what most people ignore:

Float and short interest.

Squeezes are not driven by valuation.

They are driven by supply and positioning.

A simple framework:

Tier 1: Ultra-tight float names

  • Float: 1M to 25M

  • Short interest: 20-30%+

These are your classic small float squeezes.

But CAR didn’t fit that mold.

Its float was closer to 34–35 million shares.

Too big for most “low float” scans.

But the key was how crowded the short side was:

  • ~8–9 million shares sold short

  • Roughly 50–60% of the float

That’s an explosive setup.

Then comes the trigger.

You don’t just buy because short interest is high.

You wait for:

  • A powerful upside move

  • Massive volume expansion

  • A clear shift in behavior

That’s when demand overwhelms supply.

That’s when squeezes start.

CAR checked every box.

And once it started moving…

The feedback loop took over.

For traders, this is the takeaway:

Float.

Short interest.

Watching for that big price and volume surge.

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You Didn’t Miss the Move

Most traders think they missed it.

The stock is already up. It feels extended. So they move on.

But what they think is “the move”…

Is usually just the signal.

see image 1.

That first push, especially with strong relative strength and volume, is not the end.

It’s the heads-up.

see image 2.

The real move often comes after.

The best stocks don’t move once. They move in stages.

If you’re waiting for it to look comfortable…

You’ll miss it every time.

Follow the strength.

$CAR