Notes
Reading the overall market and deciding how aggressive to be.
Showing 221–227 of 227 notes
I’ve been hearing “recession is coming” nonstop this entire bull cycle since 2023. If you let that noise dictate your trading or investing, you’ve missed out big.
Markets climb a wall of worry.
Price action is king. No matter the news, forecasts, or narratives — I defer to the tape. The market is the final arbiter of truth.
Everyone’s screaming “Crash is coming!” 🚨
Here’s the thing… if you actually have a strategy, it doesn’t matter.
Stops protect you.
Position sizing saves you.
Patience pays you.
The people panicking? They’re just showing their hand — over-leveraged, no plan, no risk management.
Markets crash. Markets recover. Traders with discipline survive both.
Trade the leaders now, but stay aware of the tides. Relative strength and market type guide today’s edge — history reminds us where the big money may flow next.
Buying the top doesn’t just cost you time… it costs you decades.
After 1929, real break-even came in 1958.
After 1968, not until the early ’90s.
After 2000, 2016.
Inflation is the silent killer of returns.
📊 S&P 500 Market Cycles (1921–Present) History shows alternating secular bulls (long uptrends) and secular bears (long sideways/inflation-adjusted declines). Inside each, multiple cyclical bulls & bears play out.
🔹 Secular Bulls: 1921–1929, 1949–1968, 1982–2000, 2013–Present 🔻 Secular Bears: 1929–1949, 1968–1982, 2000–2013
👉 Secular bulls average ~14 years, bears ~15 years. Cyclical bulls run ~4–5 years, bears ~1–2 years. Context matters: buying the top of a secular bull can mean waiting a decade+ just to break even after inflation.
💡 Quick Fact
The S&P 500 started with 500 companies in 1957.
👉 Today, only ~53 remain — just 10% survival in nearly 70 years.
📉 Lesson: No trade or stock lasts forever. Markets evolve. Successful investors know when to sell.
📉 Think "Buy and Hold" Always Works? Think Again.
Most investors believe time heals all losses — but history (and inflation) tell a different story.
The truth? If you bought the 1929, 1968, or 2000 peaks… You waited 16 to 29 years just to break even in real terms.
"Time in the market" sounds great — until you realize time plus inflation can quietly crush your wealth.
👉 Read the full post: Buy and Hold? Not So FastWhat Wall Street won’t tell you about real returns. https://tradingmomentum.substack.com/p/buy-and-hold-not-so-fast-the-hidden
