Momentum Trading Strategy

Notes

Market Conditions

Reading the overall market and deciding how aggressive to be.

Showing 1–2 of 2 notes

$AEHR ×
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Buying Earlier Won’t Fix a Bad Market.

Most of the time in a sideways, choppy market, I’m in cash.

Growth-stock momentum trading needs sustained follow-through. When the market keeps chopping up our setups, preserving capital is part of the strategy.

When I do trade, it’s usually because strong stocks are emerging within strong industry groups, while the market is pushing toward its highs and showing signs of transitioning out of the range. That’s why I was buying AEHR and other names in early August.

During those transitions, I’ve often found pullbacks and cheat entries easier to work with than traditional breakouts. That’s my experience, not an automatic rule.

I adapt to what the market is rewarding, including what my own trades are telling me.

The stock-selection standards stay the same: strong relative strength, earnings and sales growth, industry leadership, and constructive price and volume action. I want volume supporting advances, quieter pullbacks, higher lows, and tightening price action up the right side of the chart.

A cheat entry means buying the turn higher through an earlier buy point within the base, before the standard breakout. A pullback entry means waiting for controlled selling to give way to a defined turn higher.

Neither means buying simply because the price is lower.

My stop is defined before entry, usually below the tight setup, relevant pullback low, or low of entry day provided that distance fits my risk limits.

There are trade-offs. Low cheats face more overhead supply. During transitions, I’m quicker to reduce risk as trades progress, even if that means cutting some off prematurely.

I make selective attempts and build exposure as they work. If the market keeps rejecting those attempts, I return to cash.

Cheat entry below: Buying the turn higher before the standard pivot breakout, with risk defined below the recent pullback low.

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This Is Why You Track Leadership Before Everyone Else Sees It

On April 8, the market gave us the signal.

We had a follow-through day, the NASDAQ-100 reclaimed key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day, and the conversation shifted from defense back toward offense.

But the real edge was not just knowing the market was improving.

The edge was knowing where to look.

When the market gets stronger, I want to be focused on the strongest industry groups and the strongest stocks inside those groups.

That is exactly what we had been tracking for months.

  • Telecom.

  • Computer Data Storage.

  • Semiconductors.

Many of these names were not random new ideas. They had already been showing up in our work, some for months, and some even last year.

So when the market confirmed on April 8, there was no need to bounce around looking for the next hot ticker.

The leadership was already there.

From the April 8 signal to yesterday’s close:

AAOI up 40%

LITE up 12%

CIEN up 12%

VIAV up 30%

SNDK up 81%

WDC up 38%

STX up 53%

TER flat

AEIS down 4%

AEHR up 50%

LRCX up 12%

FIX up 30%

GLW flat

Not every stock works.

That is normal.

But when the market confirms, and multiple stocks from the same leading groups start moving together, that is usually not a coincidence.

That is institutional money flowing into a theme.

Strong market.

Strong industry groups.

Strong stocks.

That is the process.

The goal is not to chase every move.

The goal is to already know where the strength is clustering before the move becomes obvious.